目的 探讨自回归求和时间序列模型（ARIMA）在耐碳青霉烯类肺炎克雷伯菌（CRKP）医院感染预测中的应用，为CRKP感染的科学防控提供策略。方法 选取贾汪区人民医院住院患者2018年1月—2024年12月共7年每月CRKP医院感染率，应用SPSS 19.0建立ARIMA模型，利用该模型对2024年1—12月每月CRKP医院感染数据进行验证，以评价模型的预测性能。结果 用2018—2024年住院患者每月CRKP医院感染率建模、拟合，建立最优模型ARIMA（1，1，1），模型拟合值与实际值较吻合，模型对CRKP医院感染率实际值与预测值吻合度较高，平均相对误差为5.40%。结论 用ARIMA模型可有效拟合、预测CRKP医院感染情况，为CRKP防控提供科学指导。

     Objective To explore the value of auto regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）model in predicting theinfection rate of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae（CRKP）．Methods The monthly incidence of nosocomial infection of CRKP in Jiawang District People’s Hospital from 2018 to 2024 was selected，and the ARIMA model was established by19.0 SPSS to analyze the fitting and prediction value of the model．Results The ARIMA was established based on the monthly CRKP infection rate from January 2018 to December 2024．The fitted value of the ARIMA（1，1，1）model was in good agreement with the actual value．The incidence of CRKP infection were in good agreement with the predicted value．The average relative errors were 5.40%．Conclusions The ARIMA model can effectively fit and predict the CRKP infection rate，providing scientific guidance for the prevention and control of CRKP infection．

目的 分析濮阳市人民医院肺炎克雷伯菌(Klebsiella pneumoniae,K. pneumoniae, KPN) 的临床分布、流行病学特点及耐药情况,以促进临床合理用药。方法 回顾性分析濮阳市人民医院2020年1—3月临床送检标本中分离出的209株肺炎克雷伯菌的分布及耐药情况。结果 临床标本中共分离出肺炎克雷伯菌209株,在肠杆菌科细菌中占比为68.30%;标本来源以痰液、血液和尿液为主,分别占75.11%、9.09%、5.74%;分离菌株数量较多的科室为ICU、神经外科一病区、EICU病区和胸外科病区,分别占比47.37%、 17.7%、3.35%和3.35%。产超广谱β-内酰胺酶(ESBLs)菌株检出率为11.48%,耐碳青霉烯肺炎克雷伯菌(CRKP)检出率为58.37%。不同来源KPN的耐药性具有显著差异, 综合ICU KPN的耐药率高于其他病区。结论 濮阳市人民医院临床分离KPN对常用抗菌药物有一定的耐药性,尤其以综合ICU分离菌株耐药严重,应加强监测KPN耐药情况,有针对性的选择抗菌药物,并增强院感防控,以减轻KPN的耐药情况。

Objective To analyze the characteristic of clinical distribution, epidemiological and drug resistance of Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPN) in the People's Hospital of Puyang City,and to provide evidence for rational use of antimicrobial drugs in clinical treatment. Methods A retrospectively analysis was conducted on 209 strains of KPN isolated from the clinical specimens in the People's Hospital of Puyang City from January 2020 to March 2020. Results A total of 209 strains of KPN were isolated from clinical specimens, accounting for 68.30% of enterobacteriaceae bacteria; the sources of specimen were mainly from sputum, blood and urine, accounting for 75.11%, 9.09% and 5.74% respectively; the departments with more isolated strains were ICU department, neurosurgery first department, EICU department, and thoracic surgery department, accounting for 47.37%, 17.7%, 3.35% and 3.35% respectively. Besides, the detection rate of extended spectrum β-lactamase(ESBLs) strains was 11.48%,and the detection rate of carbapenems-resistant klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) strains was 58.37%. The results showed that the drug resistance of KPN from different sources was with a significantly difference, and the drug resistance rate of KPN in comprehensive ICU was significantly higher than that of other departments. Conclusion The resistance of KPN isolated from the People's Hospital of Puyang City to common antibiotics is not optimistic. In particularly, the drug resistance of KPN isolated strains from the comprehensive ICU is more serious. Hence, the monitoring of KPN resistance should be strengthened and the effective prevention and control measures of hospital infection should be adopted. Furthermore, antibacterial drugs should be used rationally to reduce the generation of drug-resistant bacteria.