目的 探究1990—2023年中国人群下背痛（LBP）疾病负担，并预测2024—2040年LBP疾病负担发展趋势，为公共卫生政策制定提供数据支撑。方法 基于GBD2023数据库，采用Joinpoint模型、分解分析（decomposition analysis）量化我国LBP负担变化趋势，最后通过ARIMA（autoregressive integrated moving average model）模型预测未来趋势。结果 2023年我国LBP患病人数达9 532.40万人，发病人数为4 138.36万人，伤残调整生命年（DALYs），虽然患病人数、发病人数及DALYs绝对数较1990年显著增长，但年龄标准化率（ASR）均呈显著下降趋势（AAPC依次为-0.90%、-0.84%、-0.89%）。分解分析表明，人口年龄结构是我国LBP疾病负担增长的主要正向驱动因素，流行病学趋势变化对患病率和DALYs起关键抑制作用，且存在明显性别差异。ARIMA模型预测显示，2024—2040年男性和女性LBP相关ASR将持续下降，但我国女性LBP负担仍高于男性。结论 我国LBP负担沉重，受人口结构、性别差异、行为与职业等多方面因素影响，未来需通过分人群、分职业精准干预及多部门协同，持续降低疾病负担。

     Objective To explore the characteristics of disease burden of low back pain（LBP） in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2023，and predict its development trend from 2024 to 2040，so as to provide data support for the formulation of public health policies．Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023（GBD 2023） database，the Joinpoint model and decomposition analysis were adopted to quantify the changing trend of LBP burden in China．The autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model was used to predict the future trend，with the data for prediction stratified by gender and age group．Results In 2023，the number of LBP patients in China reached 95.3240 million，the number of incident cases was 41.3836 million，and the disability-adjusted life years（DALYs） were 10.6359 million person-years．Although the absolute numbers of prevalent cases，incident cases，and DALYs increased significantly compared with 1990，the age-standardized rates（ASRs） all showed a significant downward trend（average annual percentage changes were -0.90%，-0.84%，and -0.89%，respectively）．Decomposition analysis revealed that population age structure was the primary positive driving factor for the growth of LBP disease burden in China，while changes in epidemiological trends played a key inhibitory role in prevalence and DALYs，with significant gender differences．ARIMA model prediction indicated that the LBP-related ASRs would continue to decrease in both males and females from 2024 to 2040，but the LBP burden in females would remain higher than that in males in China．Conclusions The baseline burden of LBP in China is heavy，affected by multiple factors such as population structure，gender differences，behavioral and occupational factors．In the future，targeted interventions for specific populations and occupations，as well as multi-sectoral collaboration，are needed to continuously reduce the disease burden．